← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, May 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Cesena win | 32% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Antonio Fiori · Mantova |
| 27' | 🟨 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 33' | 🟨 | Emanuele Adamo · Cesena |
| 46' | 🟨 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 46' | 🟥 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 49' | 🟨 | Simone Giordano · Mantova |
| 53' | 🟨 | Salvatore Burrai · Mantova |
| 80' | ⚽ | Davide Bragantini · Mantova |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessandro Debenedetti · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days |
| 670.00 |
| 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1438.34 | 1458.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.32 | -22.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 5.88 | 5.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |