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Catanzaro 1–3 Palermo

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro win38%2.63
Palermo win33%2.91
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro +053%1.85
Palermo +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽ (og)Federico Bonini · Palermo
26'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
56'⚽Tommaso Biasci · Catanzaro
60'🟨Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo
65'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro
74'🟨Tommaso Cassandro · Catanzaro
90'⚽Jérémy Le Douaron · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots9
5On target6
3Corners2
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.500.65
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
coach days
300.00
330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.522.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.43
elo1521.961506.70
elo momentum (last 5)-21.229.46
eye test v1-0.11-0.07
eye trend v10.12-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)58.8069.80
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.610.67
league points48.0045.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank4.0017.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2048.00
rest days15.0015.77
scorer concentration0.330.19
season ppg1.451.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.80
skill v11.210.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
state index-0.220.00
sterile dominance v11.19-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60