← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 62% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.41 | fair |
| Mantova win | 16% | 15% | 5.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Mantova −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Alex Redolfi · Mantova |
| 7' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Cremonese |
| 18' | 🟨 | Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese |
| 25' | ⚽ | Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese |
| 37' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese |
| 47' | ⚽ | Manuel De Luca · Cremonese |
| 53' | ⚽ | Michele Collocolo · Cremonese |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cristiano Bani · Mantova |
| 73' | ⚽ | Manuel De Luca · Cremonese |
| 77' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 26 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cremonese | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| ⚽ |
| Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 175.00 | 664.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1562.55 | 1430.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.78 | 21.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| league points | 53.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 12.13 | 12.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |