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Salernitana 3–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana win55%1.77
Draw27%3.60
Cosenza win19%5.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.7552%1.88
Salernitana −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Christian Kouan · Cosenza
43'🟨Andrés Tello · Salernitana
50'⚽Tommaso Corazza · Salernitana
56'🟨Fabio Ruggeri · Salernitana
64'⚽Gian Marco Ferrari · Salernitana
78'⚽Franco Tongya · Salernitana
80'🟨Ajdin Hrustić · Salernitana
82'⚽Massimo Zilli · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
8On target3
5Corners11
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)1.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Arechi
coach days
24.00
55.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.333.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.550.37
elo1408.371378.37
elo momentum (last 5)7.18-8.07
eye test v1-0.54-0.62
eye trend v1-0.21-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.0056.30
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
keeper form v10.700.54
league points33.0031.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8079.40
possession avg (last 5)46.6044.60
rest days13.0013.00
scorer concentration0.160.16
season ppg1.000.94
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.009.00
skill v1-0.37-0.17
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
state index-0.02-1.02
sterile dominance v1-0.340.32
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40