← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 40% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Modena win | 29% | 3.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Bari −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Modena |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mattia Maita · Bari |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 25' | 🟨 | Andrea Oliveri · Bari |
| 31' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Bari |
| 41' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Bari |
| 44' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Bari |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
| 81' | 🟥 | Alessandro Di Pardo · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale San Nicola |
| 328.00 |
| 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1487.08 | 1465.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.47 | -4.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 13.77 | 12.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |