← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
| Mantova win | 23% | 4.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova +0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Spezia +0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Aurelio · Spezia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 63' | 🟥 | Nicolò Bertola · Spezia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Salvatore Elia · Spezia |
| 80' | ⚽ | Tommaso Maggioni · Mantova |
| 83' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommaso Maggioni · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefano Cella · Mantova |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tommaso Maggioni · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days |
| 652.00 |
| 529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 4.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1445.15 | 1554.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.57 | -0.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.83 |
| league points | 36.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |