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Modena 1–3 US Sassuolo Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win43%2.28
Draw30%3.20
Modena win27%3.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio +0.2550%1.94
Modena +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Filippo Romagna · US Sassuolo Calcio
36'⚽Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio
40'🟨Edoardo Iannoni · US Sassuolo Calcio
60'⚽Simone Santoro · Modena
64'⚽Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
67'🟨Luca Magnino · Modena
76'⚽Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio
77'🟨Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio
79'🟨Giovanni Zaro · Modena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots11
7On target4
6Corners1
10Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaUS Sassuolo Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.720.61
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days
162.00
315.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.791.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.430.58
elo1476.791627.88
elo momentum (last 5)2.04-6.87
eye test v1-0.470.47
eye trend v10.090.44
first sub minute (last 10)53.9052.90
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.45
keeper form v10.720.72
league points41.0072.00
league rank10.001.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0082.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4052.60
rest days7.096.19
scorer concentration0.140.19
season ppg1.282.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6015.20
skill v10.390.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
squad age—25.91
state index-0.050.40
sterile dominance v10.470.01
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.33
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40