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Reggiana 0–2 Pisa

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win45%2.17
Draw30%3.15
Reggiana win25%3.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +0.2553%1.84
Reggiana +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.59
Over40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Luca Cigarini · Reggiana
1'🟨Markus Solbakken · Pisa
23'⚽Alexander Lind · Pisa
29'🟨Natan Girma · Reggiana
40'🟨Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana
44'🟨Gabriele Piccinini · Pisa
44'⚽Matteo Tramoni · Pisa
52'🟨Manuel Marras · Reggiana
68'🟨Riccardo Fiamozzi · Reggiana
80'🟨Francesco Bardi · Reggiana
90'🟨Lorenzo Ignacchiti · Reggiana
90'🟨Paolo Rozzio · Reggiana
90'🟨Henrik Wendel Meister · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots13
1On target3
3Corners2
15Fouls18
7Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReggianaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.580.81
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days
42.00
285.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.403.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.773.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.15
dominance (last 5)0.460.63
elo1392.421556.47
elo momentum (last 5)-17.24-9.71
eye test v1-0.580.15
eye trend v10.300.63
first sub minute (last 10)59.6050.30
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.600.71
league points32.0061.00
league rank18.002.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet11.001.00
matches since win9.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)44.0053.80
rest days7.776.91
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg1.001.91
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.005.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4013.40
skill v1-0.28-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.80
state index-1.050.19
sterile dominance v1-0.46-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40