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Cosenza 1–1 Brescia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win36%2.70
Cosenza win33%3.02
Draw31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +053%1.85
Cosenza +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽ (og)Aldo Florenzi · Brescia
38'🟥Andrea Cistana · Brescia
45'🟨Michael Venturi · Cosenza
58'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
83'🟨Ante Matej Jurić · Brescia
88'🟨Patrick Amiamo Nuamah · Brescia
90'🟨Mario Gargiulo · Cosenza
90'⚽Massimo Zilli · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
21Shots11
4On target1
7Corners7
12Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaBrescia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.77
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days
42.00
101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.983.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.08
dominance (last 5)0.330.41
elo1378.771424.94
elo momentum (last 5)-3.55-11.16
eye test v1-0.690.11
eye trend v1-0.090.70
first sub minute (last 10)57.6058.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v1—0.71
league points30.0034.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)39.0043.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.13
season ppg0.941.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.4012.80
skill v1-0.67-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.40
state index-0.88-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.140.40
threat rate (last 5)0.190.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20