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Bari 2–1 Palermo

← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win37%2.64
Bari win33%2.92
Draw30%3.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo +053%1.85
Bari +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Giulio Maggiore · Bari
18'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo
48'🟨Giangiacomo Magnani · Palermo
52'🟨Costantino Favasuli · Bari
84'🟨Kristoffer Lund · Palermo
89'⚽Lorenco Šimić · Bari

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots7
6On target3
7Corners4
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.68
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days
314.00
314.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.203.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.51
elo1477.701516.07
elo momentum (last 5)-7.3225.66
eye test v1-0.100.40
eye trend v10.27-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)50.8067.90
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.700.63
league points41.0045.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank2.0016.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6081.60
possession avg (last 5)45.8049.20
rest days5.235.23
scorer concentration0.190.17
season ppg1.281.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2016.60
skill v1-0.070.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
state index-0.390.35
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60