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Spezia 2–0 Sampdoria

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win52%1.83
Draw27%3.54
Sampdoria win20%4.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sampdoria −0.7554%1.82
Spezia −0.7546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Ronaldo Vieira · Sampdoria
37'🟨Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia
45'🟨Giuseppe Sibilli · Sampdoria
60'🟨Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria
65'⚽Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia
71'🟨Alessandro Pio Riccio · Sampdoria
73'⚽Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia
85'🟨Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia
85'🟥Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia
89'🟨Rémi Oudin · Sampdoria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
6On target3
3Corners3
15Fouls26
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaSampdoria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.750.67
cards avg (last 5)3.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days
522.00
5.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.05
corner diff avg (last 5)4.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.912.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.610.50
elo1545.861441.03
elo momentum (last 5)-21.52-15.03
eye test v10.30-0.32
eye trend v1-0.170.27
first sub minute (last 10)54.1050.40
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.750.62
league points55.0032.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)59.0051.00
rest days8.828.05
scorer concentration0.360.19
season ppg1.771.03
shot diff avg (last 5)7.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)19.2012.80
skill v10.740.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age—22.98
state index0.04-0.61
sterile dominance v1-0.070.04
threat rate (last 10)0.350.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.330.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80