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Palermo 5–3 US Sassuolo Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win39%2.55
Palermo win33%2.99
Draw29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo +0.2555%1.78
US Sassuolo Calcio +0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
18'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo
25'⚽ (og)Jeremy Toljan · Palermo
45'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo
48'🟨Giangiacomo Magnani · Palermo
55'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
61'🟨Jeremy Toljan · US Sassuolo Calcio
73'⚽Nicholas Pierini · US Sassuolo Calcio
74'⚽Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio
76'🟨Jacopo Segre · Palermo
81'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
13Shots20
5On target7
9Corners4
9Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoUS Sassuolo Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
84'⚽Pedro Obiang · US Sassuolo Calcio
coach days
309.00
309.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.741.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.05
dominance (last 5)0.510.57
elo1497.301646.65
elo momentum (last 5)23.668.53
eye test v10.46-0.05
eye trend v1-0.180.13
first sub minute (last 10)67.1054.80
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.69
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.620.77
league points42.0072.00
league rank8.001.00
matches since blank15.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4080.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0054.00
rest days6.917.77
scorer concentration0.130.20
season ppg1.352.32
shot diff avg (last 5)1.803.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.2012.20
skill v10.210.56
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age—25.91
state index0.350.83
sterile dominance v1-0.500.47
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.300.26
threat rate (last 5)0.320.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00