← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 35% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.93 |
| Sudtirol win | 32% | 3.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sudtirol +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Raffaele Celia · Cesena |
| 27' | ⚽ | Niklas Pyyhtiä · Sudtirol |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 42' | 🟨 | Hamza El Kaouakibi · Sudtirol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol |
| 59' | ⚽ | Elayis Tavsan · Cesena |
| 61' | 🟨 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 82' | 🟨 | Simone Davì · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days |
| 125.00 |
| 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1443.07 | 1469.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.51 | 12.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 34.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.02 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.02 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |