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Sudtirol 1–1 Cesena

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cesena win35%2.78
Draw33%2.93
Sudtirol win32%3.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cesena +052%1.88
Sudtirol +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Raffaele Celia · Cesena
27'⚽Niklas Pyyhtiä · Sudtirol
29'🟨Cristian Shpendi · Cesena
42'🟨Hamza El Kaouakibi · Sudtirol
45'🟨Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol
59'⚽Elayis Tavsan · Cesena
61'🟨Matteo Francesconi · Cesena
82'🟨Simone Davì · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots7
1On target2
2Corners5
15Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolCesena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.730.66
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days
125.00
278.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.203.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.470.52
elo1443.071469.03
elo momentum (last 5)7.5112.43
eye test v1-0.40-0.75
eye trend v10.13-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)47.0056.00
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
keeper form v10.74—
league points34.0042.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)38.2046.60
rest days6.966.00
scorer concentration0.150.19
season ppg1.101.35
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6012.40
skill v1-2.02-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
state index-0.080.07
sterile dominance v1-2.02-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.400.24
threat rate (last 5)0.360.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00