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Frosinone Calcio 2–2 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win51%1.92
Draw29%3.40
Cosenza win21%4.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.551%1.93
Cosenza −0.549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Fabio Lucioni · Frosinone Calcio
13'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
24'⚽Gabriele Artistico · Cosenza
38'⚽Ebrima Darboe · Frosinone Calcio
44'⚽Andrea Rizzo Pinna · Cosenza
63'🟨Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio
66'🟨Emil Bohinen · Frosinone Calcio
79'🟥Christos Kourfalidis · Cosenza
85'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Cosenza
90'🟨Emanuele Pecorino · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Manuel Ricciardi · Cosenza
90'⚽Emanuele Pecorino · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
20Shots6
5On target3
6Corners0
5Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)3.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
coach days
63.00
35.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.893.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.20
dominance (last 5)0.450.41
elo1486.531374.18
elo momentum (last 5)48.40-24.91
eye test v1-0.02-0.43
eye trend v10.12-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)53.1057.30
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.690.56
league points36.0029.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6042.00
rest days6.966.96
scorer concentration0.120.18
season ppg1.160.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.809.60
skill v10.04-0.39
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index0.49-1.17
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.14
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20