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Brescia 1–2 Mantova

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win44%2.21
Draw29%3.36
Mantova win28%3.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia −0.2551%1.90
Mantova −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia
49'🟨Matthias Verreth · Brescia
50'⚽Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova
55'🟨Gabriele Calvani · Brescia
64'🟨Salvatore Burrai · Mantova
84'🟨Luca Lezzerini · Brescia
90'⚽Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots18
6On target8
1Corners3
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaMantova
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.720.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days
94.00
644.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.003.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.43
elo1436.751433.35
elo momentum (last 5)-1.13-14.19
eye test v10.34-0.26
eye trend v10.29-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)56.9056.20
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.710.63
league points34.0033.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6081.20
possession avg (last 5)49.0061.40
rest days7.736.96
scorer concentration0.130.21
season ppg1.101.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.2010.80
skill v1-0.231.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
state index-0.25-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.651.38
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.330.15
threat rate (last 5)0.320.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80