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Cesena 1–2 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2024-25 Β· Sun, Mar 30, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Marcenaro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cesena win42%2.34
Draw33%2.90
Juve Stabia win25%3.93

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia βˆ’0.2550%1.95
Cesena βˆ’0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽ (og)Massimiliano Mangraviti · Juve Stabia
28'🟨Giuseppe Leone · Juve Stabia
45'🟨Christian Pierobon · Juve Stabia
47'🟨Marco Bellich · Juve Stabia
53'⚽Andrea Adorante · Juve Stabia
57'⚽Cristian Shpendi · Cesena
67'🟨Danilo Quaranta · Juve Stabia
70'🟨Elayis Tavsan · Cesena
85'🟨Emanuele Adamo · Cesena

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots8
5On target1
8Corners1
17Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCesenaJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.49
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.75
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueOrogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
coach days
272.00
638.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.46
elo1481.561451.74
elo momentum (last 5)26.190.88
eye test v1-1.02-0.26
eye trend v1-0.18-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)57.5050.20
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.35
keeper form v1β€”0.68
league points42.0043.00
league rank7.006.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0069.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2045.40
rest days14.9614.96
scorer concentration0.160.33
season ppg1.401.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.809.20
skill v1-0.46-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.80
state index0.16-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.27-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.260.18
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40