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Carrarese 2–1 Bari

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Carrarese win37%2.66
Draw32%3.00
Bari win30%3.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Carrarese +055%1.79
Bari +045%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
29'🟨Mehdi Dorval · Bari
33'🟨Samuel Giovane · Carrarese
37'⚽Lorenco Šimić · Bari
45'🟨Nosa Edward Obaretin · Bari
45'⚽Ernesto Torregrossa · Carrarese
51'⚽Gabriele Guarino · Carrarese
60'🟨Lorenco Šimić · Bari
85'🟨Manuel Cicconi · Carrarese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots21
5On target6
7Corners7
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCarrareseBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio dei Marmi
coach days
454.00
302.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.04
dominance (last 5)0.440.45
elo1430.391484.44
elo momentum (last 5)1.0910.77
eye test v1-0.33-0.58
eye trend v1-0.020.19
first sub minute (last 10)50.6050.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.530.76
league points33.0040.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2077.00
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.60
rest days13.9614.77
scorer concentration0.180.19
season ppg1.101.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.60
skill v1-0.55-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
state index-0.45-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.36-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20