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US Sassuolo Calcio 5–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win51%1.88
Draw28%3.50
Reggiana win21%4.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio −0.552%1.88
Reggiana −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Antonio Vergara · Reggiana
15'⚽Samuele Mulattieri · US Sassuolo Calcio
18'⚽ (og)Tobías Reinhart · US Sassuolo Calcio
22'🟨Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana
35'⚽Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
38'⚽Daniel Boloca · US Sassuolo Calcio
41'🟨Antonio Vergara · Reggiana
44'🟨Andrea Ghion · US Sassuolo Calcio
57'🟨Edoardo Pieragnolo · US Sassuolo Calcio
82'🟨Natan Girma · Reggiana
86'⚽ (pen)Simone Verdi · US Sassuolo Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
14Shots10
6On target3
3Corners2
10Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.500.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days
301.00
28.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.811.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.47
elo1640.861405.61
elo momentum (last 5)8.52-2.41
eye test v1-0.37-0.42
eye trend v1-0.090.28
first sub minute (last 10)54.8057.10
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.790.66
league points69.0032.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.009.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4079.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0045.60
rest days14.1913.19
scorer concentration0.200.18
season ppg2.301.07
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.20
skill v10.37-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
squad age25.91—
state index0.80-0.69
sterile dominance v10.57-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40