← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Perenzoni
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 46% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Catanzaro win | 24% | 4.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Modena −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 33' | ⚽ | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tommaso Cassandro · Catanzaro |
| 79' | 🟨 | Matteo Cotali · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Cauz · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days |
| 148.00 |
| 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1451.57 | 1536.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | 6.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |