← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Ferrieri Caputi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Sudtirol win | 30% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Davis Mensah · Mantova |
| 17' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Sudtirol |
| 27' | 🟨 | Luca Belardinelli · Sudtirol |
| 36' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 37' | 🟨 | Salvatore Burrai · Mantova |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marco Festa · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 31 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days |
| 637.00 |
| 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1419.31 | 1457.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.67 | 30.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 47.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |