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Mantova 2–0 Sudtirol

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Ferrieri Caputi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mantova win39%2.45
Draw31%3.10
Sudtirol win30%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol −0.2553%1.84
Mantova −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Davis Mensah · Mantova
17'🟨Frédéric Veseli · Sudtirol
27'🟨Luca Belardinelli · Sudtirol
36'🟨Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol
37'🟨Salvatore Burrai · Mantova
41'⚽Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova
56'🟨Marco Festa · Mantova

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots16
5On target1
2Corners7
13Fouls31
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMantovaSudtirol
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.74
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Danilo Martelli
coach days
637.00
118.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.031.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.49
elo1419.311457.12
elo momentum (last 5)-25.6730.96
eye test v1-0.300.05
eye trend v1-0.340.13
first sub minute (last 10)57.7047.00
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.620.78
league points30.0034.00
league rank19.0014.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet15.003.00
matches since win8.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2066.40
possession avg (last 5)58.2041.40
rest days13.0013.00
scorer concentration0.230.15
season ppg1.001.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.2014.00
skill v10.87-1.56
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-1.010.20
sterile dominance v11.01-1.56
threat rate (last 10)0.200.32
threat rate (last 3)0.170.38
threat rate (last 5)0.190.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40