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Cosenza 0–3 Pisa

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win50%1.95
Draw29%3.25
Cosenza win21%4.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +0.550%1.96
Cosenza +0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Stefano Moreo · Pisa
24'🟨Pietro Martino · Cosenza
30'⚽Idrissa Touré · Pisa
34'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
36'🟥Filippo Sgarbi · Cosenza
41'🟨Pietro Martino · Cosenza
41'🟥Pietro Martino · Cosenza
43'⚽ (og)Alessandro Micai · Pisa
84'🟨Simone Mazzocchi · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
1Shots14
0On target5
0Corners5
6Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)—0.77
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days
28.00
271.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.564.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.21
dominance (last 5)0.530.62
elo1386.191558.96
elo momentum (last 5)-25.530.30
eye test v10.02-0.05
eye trend v1-0.140.41
first sub minute (last 10)60.6055.40
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.57—
league points29.0058.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8050.60
rest days12.9113.00
scorer concentration0.180.24
season ppg0.971.93
shot diff avg (last 5)1.805.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.80
skill v1-0.21-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
state index-0.800.18
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00