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Catanzaro 4–0 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro win47%2.10
Draw30%3.20
Cosenza win24%4.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.553%1.86
Catanzaro −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro
46'⚽Marco Pompetti · Catanzaro
48'🟨Tommaso D'Orazio · Cosenza
54'⚽Federico Bonini · Catanzaro
57'🟨Jacopo Petriccione · Catanzaro
68'⚽Mamadou Coulibaly · Catanzaro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots10
6On target3
1Corners1
3Fouls14
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.590.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
coach days
258.00
15.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.513.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.470.52
elo1527.051395.53
elo momentum (last 5)-4.07-6.87
eye test v1-0.68-0.12
eye trend v1-0.280.29
first sub minute (last 10)59.5061.70
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.680.66
league points43.0029.00
league rank6.0020.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)58.4047.40
rest days8.098.86
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg1.481.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.20
skill v11.25-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.00
state index0.03-0.62
sterile dominance v11.02-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20