← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tremolada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Carrarese win | 26% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Carrarese −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Samuel Giovane · Carrarese |
| 43' | 🟨 | Filippo Oliana · Carrarese |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samuel Giovane · Carrarese |
| 59' | ⚽ | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol |
| 66' | 🟥 | Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 73' | ⚽ | Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol |
| 76' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| 🟨 |
| Alessandro Fontanarosa · Carrarese |
| 85' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Carrarese |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ernesto Torregrossa · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 105.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1466.07 | 1432.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.64 | -9.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.57 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |