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Sudtirol 2–2 Carrarese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tremolada

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol win42%2.30
Draw32%3.10
Carrarese win26%3.86

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol −0.2551%1.90
Carrarese −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Samuel Giovane · Carrarese
43'🟨Filippo Oliana · Carrarese
45'🟨Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol
45'🟨Samuel Giovane · Carrarese
59'⚽Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol
66'🟨Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol
66'🟥Mateusz Praszelik · Sudtirol
72'🟨Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese
73'⚽Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol
76'🟨Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol
79'🟨Alessandro Fontanarosa · Carrarese
85'🟨Leonardo Capezzi · Carrarese
90'⚽Ernesto Torregrossa · Carrarese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots9
5On target3
4Corners7
17Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolCarrarese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.780.66
cards avg (last 5)1.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days
105.00
440.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.420.46
elo1459.701427.81
elo momentum (last 5)25.16-10.81
eye test v1-0.40-0.45
eye trend v1-0.03-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)47.0048.40
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.840.57
league points33.0032.00
league rank12.0014.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.009.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6044.60
rest days6.918.00
scorer concentration0.130.19
season ppg1.141.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.80
skill v1-1.51-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index0.07-0.59
sterile dominance v1-1.27-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.320.26
threat rate (last 3)0.340.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40