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Reggiana 2–2 Sampdoria

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana win34%2.84
Draw34%2.90
Sampdoria win32%2.99

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana +051%1.90
Sampdoria +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Manuel Marras · Reggiana
33'⚽Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
48'🟨Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
54'🟨M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria
60'⚽Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
61'🟨Alessio Cragno · Sampdoria
67'⚽M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria
69'🟨M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria
69'🟥M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria
71'🟨Giuseppe Sibilli · Sampdoria
74'⚽Rémi Oudin · Sampdoria
85'🟨Antonio Vergara · Reggiana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots14
6On target4
2Corners8
13Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReggianaSampdoria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days
15.00
105.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.841.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1405.741461.15
elo momentum (last 5)-13.274.22
eye test v1-0.83-0.43
eye trend v10.030.15
first sub minute (last 10)59.5051.60
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.640.61
league points31.0031.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.002.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)49.4046.60
rest days8.777.91
scorer concentration0.190.21
season ppg1.071.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.60
skill v10.31-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.00
squad age—22.98
state index-0.62-0.25
sterile dominance v10.33-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80