← Premier League 2003-04 · Sat, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Styles
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Man United win | 30% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.