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Cittadella 1–2 US Sassuolo Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win53%1.85
Draw28%3.50
Cittadella win20%5.55

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella +0.7553%1.86
US Sassuolo Calcio +0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.82
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Samuele Mulattieri · US Sassuolo Calcio
46'⚽Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio
51'🟨Josh Doig · US Sassuolo Calcio
54'🟨Alessandro Salvi · Cittadella
82'🟨Simone Tronchin · Cittadella
90'🟨Nicola Pavan · Cittadella
90'🟨Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio
90'⚽Simone Tronchin · Cittadella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots18
3On target6
3Corners5
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaUS Sassuolo Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.640.45
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
coach days
165.00
287.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.572.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.02
dominance (last 5)0.380.55
elo1394.941635.63
elo momentum (last 5)-13.2715.78
eye test v1-1.13-0.27
eye trend v1-0.03-0.54
first sub minute (last 10)53.5058.30
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.670.79
league points34.0066.00
league rank11.001.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6078.60
possession avg (last 5)45.4048.40
rest days5.916.00
scorer concentration0.240.20
season ppg1.172.28
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.809.20
skill v1-1.100.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.60
squad age—25.91
state index-0.810.70
sterile dominance v1-0.080.33
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.19
threat rate (last 5)0.180.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40