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Palermo 2–3 Cremonese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win36%2.76
Cremonese win34%2.94
Draw31%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo +052%1.88
Cremonese +048%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Pietro Ceccaroni · Palermo
28'🟨Paulo Azzi · Cremonese
53'🟨Matteo Brunori · Palermo
55'⚽Claudio Gomes · Palermo
70'🟨Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese
72'⚽ (pen)Matteo Brunori · Palermo
73'🟨Valerio Verre · Palermo
74'⚽Paulo Azzi · Cremonese
78'🟨Salim Diakité · Palermo
81'🟨Aljoša Vasić · Palermo
86'⚽Mattia Valoti · Cremonese
90'⚽Michele Collocolo · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots19
3On target7
1Corners7
14Fouls16
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.690.71
cards avg (last 5)2.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days
286.00
133.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)9.002.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.16
dominance (last 5)0.480.68
elo1497.941548.10
elo momentum (last 5)26.079.05
eye test v10.500.77
eye trend v10.15-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)65.3057.30
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.620.73
league points39.0045.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank13.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6082.60
possession avg (last 5)48.4057.40
rest days6.146.23
scorer concentration0.140.19
season ppg1.341.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.209.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.2018.20
skill v1-0.270.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.401.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
state index0.320.46
sterile dominance v1-0.72-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.380.31
threat rate (last 5)0.320.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60