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Spezia 3–2 Pisa

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win51%1.91
Draw29%3.30
Pisa win20%5.42

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia −0.552%1.87
Pisa −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'⚽ (og)Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Pisa
43'🟨Henrik Wendel Meister · Pisa
45'⚽Salvatore Esposito · Spezia
47'⚽Henrik Wendel Meister · Pisa
58'⚽Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia
65'⚽Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia
73'🟨Aleš Matějů · Spezia
74'🟨Simone Canestrelli · Pisa
86'🟨Oliver Abildgaard · Pisa
88'🟨Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia
90'🟨Alexander Lind · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots9
4On target3
2Corners0
16Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days
494.00
251.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.802.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.543.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.670.59
elo1553.161559.72
elo momentum (last 5)-8.49-5.35
eye test v10.24-0.75
eye trend v1-0.410.24
first sub minute (last 10)53.4055.60
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v10.700.82
league points51.0055.00
league rank3.002.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8072.60
possession avg (last 5)56.6052.80
rest days8.817.91
scorer concentration0.360.22
season ppg1.821.96
shot diff avg (last 5)11.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)21.8010.60
skill v10.55-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.902.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
state index0.100.13
sterile dominance v1-0.590.30
threat rate (last 10)0.360.24
threat rate (last 3)0.380.22
threat rate (last 5)0.380.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60