⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

US Sassuolo Calcio 1–1 Bari

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win58%1.70
Draw25%3.90
Bari win17%6.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −153%1.85
US Sassuolo Calcio −147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'⚽Kevin Lasagna · Bari
45'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
56'🟨Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
76'🟨Coli Saco · Bari
82'🟨Mattia Maita · Bari
82'⚽Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio
86'🟨Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio
87'🟨Alessandro Tripaldelli · Bari

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots10
3On target5
5Corners4
12Fouls19
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.530.58
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days
281.00
281.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.132.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.000.07
dominance (last 5)0.550.42
elo1641.211482.61
elo momentum (last 5)27.631.65
eye test v1-0.31-0.79
eye trend v1-0.49-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)59.9048.60
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.780.78
league points65.0038.00
league rank1.009.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)46.4045.00
rest days7.916.91
scorer concentration0.210.15
season ppg2.321.36
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.8011.00
skill v1-0.27-0.60
sot against avg (last 5)2.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
squad age25.91—
state index1.13-0.19
sterile dominance v10.17-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00