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Brescia 1–1 Cesena

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Galipò

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win35%2.70
Cesena win33%3.09
Draw32%3.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +053%1.83
Cesena +047%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Alexander Jallow · Brescia
24'🟨Massimiliano Mangraviti · Cesena
32'🟨Massimo Bertagnoli · Brescia
45'⚽Davide Adorni · Brescia
50'⚽ (og)Gabriele Calvani · Cesena
69'🟨Mirko Antonucci · Cesena
89'🟨Giuseppe Prestia · Cesena
90'🟨Davide Adorni · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
4On target1
3Corners3
12Fouls21
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaCesena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.700.62
cards avg (last 5)1.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days
66.00
250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.49
elo1429.281480.72
elo momentum (last 5)-4.7026.61
eye test v1-0.54-0.46
eye trend v1-0.41-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)52.2056.70
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
keeper form v10.740.72
league points30.0040.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0047.40
rest days6.197.19
scorer concentration0.140.16
season ppg1.071.43
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.80
skill v10.27-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
state index-0.440.16
sterile dominance v10.13-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80