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Cremonese 4–0 Catanzaro

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Arena

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win56%1.75
Draw26%3.70
Catanzaro win18%6.08

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese −0.7552%1.89
Catanzaro −0.7548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese
42'🟨Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
65'⚽Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese
68'🟨Matias Antonini · Catanzaro
70'⚽ (pen)Manuel De Luca · Cremonese
76'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
24Shots8
7On target1
7Corners1
20Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCremoneseCatanzaro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.740.72
cards avg (last 5)3.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giovanni Zini
coach days
127.00
250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.16
corner diff avg (last 5)3.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.442.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.06
dominance (last 5)0.650.50
elo1531.971543.18
elo momentum (last 5)-19.5121.80
eye test v10.53-0.14
eye trend v1-0.01-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)58.5059.70
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.690.76
league points42.0043.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6084.60
possession avg (last 5)59.6058.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg1.501.54
shot diff avg (last 5)7.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.2012.60
skill v11.001.17
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
state index-0.070.42
sterile dominance v10.310.96
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80