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Bari 1–1 Sampdoria

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: V. Crezzini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win38%2.55
Draw32%3.00
Sampdoria win29%3.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sampdoria −0.2554%1.80
Bari −0.2546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.55
Over38%2.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Davide Veroli · Sampdoria
18'🟨Raffaele Pucino · Bari
45'⚽M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria
48'⚽Giulio Maggiore · Bari
55'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
62'🟨Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria
80'🟨Rémi Oudin · Sampdoria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots20
2On target3
4Corners6
14Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariSampdoria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)2.803.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days
274.00
91.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.702.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1485.021459.44
elo momentum (last 5)5.0712.13
eye test v1-0.51-0.68
eye trend v10.13-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)50.8049.20
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.800.60
league points37.0029.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8042.20
rest days8.098.86
scorer concentration0.160.19
season ppg1.371.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2011.40
skill v10.02-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
squad age—22.98
state index-0.02-0.18
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60