← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 59% | 46% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +13% |
| Catanzaro win | 16% | 25% | 7.03 | value: +76% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Spezia −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 14' | 🟨 | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 17' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 17' | 🟨 | Federico Bonini · Catanzaro |
| 39' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mario Šitum · Catanzaro |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 66' | 🟥 | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 75' | ⚽ | Filippo Pittarello · Catanzaro |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marco Pompetti · Catanzaro |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| 🟨 |
| Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giacomo Quagliata · Catanzaro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 480.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1577.98 | 1511.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.77 | 29.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 50.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 28.84 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |