⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cremonese 1–2 Cesena

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win51%1.86
Draw29%3.30
Cesena win20%5.19

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese −0.552%1.87
Cesena −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Giacomo Calò · Cesena
40'⚽Paulo Azzi · Cremonese
45'🟨Marco Nasti · Cremonese
46'🟨Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese
59'🟨Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
77'🟨Federico Ceccherini · Cremonese
90'🟨Andrea Ciofi · Cesena
90'⚽Simone Bastoni · Cesena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots11
6On target2
4Corners6
23Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCremoneseCesena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.750.72
cards avg (last 5)2.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giovanni Zini
coach days113.00236.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)5.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.731.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.16
dominance (last 5)0.690.49
elo1547.041456.61
elo momentum (last 5)-1.0213.65
eye test v10.99-0.10
eye trend v1-0.140.15
first sub minute (last 10)60.9056.10
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v1—0.65
league points41.0034.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)59.4044.40
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.220.19
season ppg1.581.31
shot diff avg (last 5)11.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)20.8010.40
skill v11.00-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.00
state index0.34-0.14
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.330.18
threat rate (last 5)0.350.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20