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Reggiana 2–2 Carrarese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana win44%2.25
Draw33%2.90
Carrarese win23%4.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana −0.2555%1.76
Carrarese −0.2545%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.67

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Gabriele Guarino · Carrarese
17'🟨Simone Zanon · Carrarese
26'⚽Natan Girma · Reggiana
42'🟨Lorenzo Libutti · Reggiana
49'🟨Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana
57'⚽Emanuele Zuelli · Carrarese
75'🟨Manuel Cicconi · Carrarese
82'⚽Luca Vido · Reggiana
85'🟨Niccolò Belloni · Carrarese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots10
4On target3
5Corners4
8Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReggianaCarrarese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days236.00418.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.21
dominance (last 5)0.430.54
elo1410.621437.34
elo momentum (last 5)-20.10-41.60
eye test v1-0.71-0.29
eye trend v1-0.410.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.1050.70
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.640.60
league points29.0030.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)49.8053.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.18
season ppg1.121.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.80
skill v10.22-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
state index-0.67-0.84
sterile dominance v10.41-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40