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Pisa 3–1 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win51%1.91
Draw29%3.40
Juve Stabia win20%5.59

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa −0.552%1.87
Juve Stabia −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟥Leonardo Candellone · Juve Stabia
42'🟨Danilo Quaranta · Juve Stabia
57'⚽ (og)Marius Marin · Juve Stabia
59'🟨Romano Floriani Mussolini · Juve Stabia
64'⚽ (pen)Matteo Tramoni · Pisa
66'⚽Olimpiu Moruțan · Pisa
77'⚽Stefano Moreo · Pisa
79'🟨Adrian Rus · Pisa
87'🟨Leonardo Sernicola · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots6
6On target4
4Corners0
21Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.51
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.600.82
cards avg (last 5)2.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days
236.00
602.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.23
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.352.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.570.41
elo1557.421463.50
elo momentum (last 5)-2.7222.96
eye test v1-1.21-0.12
eye trend v10.020.32
first sub minute (last 10)56.9053.90
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.830.74
league points52.0039.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2050.20
rest days5.916.00
scorer concentration0.230.37
season ppg2.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.408.80
skill v1-1.01-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.20
state index0.28-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.510.40
threat rate (last 10)0.270.16
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80