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Frosinone Calcio 1–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win37%2.60
Draw33%3.00
Reggiana win30%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana −0.2555%1.79
Frosinone Calcio −0.2545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Lorenzo Libutti · Reggiana
42'⚽Alessandro Sersanti · Reggiana
43'🟨Antonio Vergara · Reggiana
84'🟨Ben Lhassine Kone · Frosinone Calcio
85'🟨Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana
89'🟨Farès Ghedjemis · Frosinone Calcio
90'⚽Ilias Koutsoupias · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots10
7On target2
8Corners3
17Fouls19
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.750.57
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
2.60
coach days15.00230.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.45
elo1440.731408.01
elo momentum (last 5)-47.69-22.95
eye test v1-0.26-0.63
eye trend v1-0.05-0.38
first sub minute (last 10)50.8059.00
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.560.65
league points22.0028.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)46.6047.80
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.18
season ppg0.881.12
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v10.15-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
state index-1.05-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.190.11
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.330.18
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20