← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 34% | 40% | 3.06 | value: +21% |
| Sampdoria win | 34% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Sudtirol +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 11' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Sibilli · Sampdoria |
| 32' | 🟨 | Andrea Giorgini · Sudtirol |
| 32' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Sampdoria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟥 | Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 73' | 🟨 | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 75' | 🟨 | Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol |
| 75' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| 🟨 |
| Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 75' | 🟥 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 76.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1432.15 | 1476.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.08 | 5.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.54 |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 27.55 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |