← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Modena win | 27% | 3.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Modena +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gady Beyuku · Modena |
| 23' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 27' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
| 38' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 41' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Modena |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nicolò Bertola · Spezia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 90' | 🟥 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duccio Degli Innocenti · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 106.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1457.43 | 1568.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.98 | 32.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| league points | 30.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |