⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bari 2–1 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win46%2.10
Draw31%3.20
Frosinone Calcio win23%4.46

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.554%1.81
Bari −0.546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Anthony Partipilo · Frosinone Calcio
12'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
17'🟨Davide Bettella · Frosinone Calcio
24'🟨Giuseppe Ambrosino · Frosinone Calcio
45'⚽ (pen)Andrea Favilli · Bari
66'🟨Jérémy Oyono · Frosinone Calcio
73'⚽Nicholas Bonfanti · Bari
86'🟨Mattia Maita · Bari
90'⚽Giorgi Kvernadze · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots20
3On target7
3Corners6
14Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
box share (last 5)0.660.76
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days246.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)4.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.48
elo1480.961447.20
elo momentum (last 5)6.23-30.78
eye test v10.07-0.46
eye trend v10.20-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)55.9048.80
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.15
keeper form v10.770.64
league points30.0021.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)61.4050.00
rest days8.098.09
scorer concentration0.180.20
season ppg1.300.91
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.0010.60
skill v11.190.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
state index0.07-0.71
sterile dominance v10.850.48
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00