← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 40% | 45% | 2.43 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 29% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cremonese +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Zan Majer · Cremonese |
| 10' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Salernitana |
| 18' | 🟨 | Michele Collocolo · Cremonese |
| 35' | 🟨 | Paolo Ghiglione · Salernitana |
| 56' | ⚽ | Antonio Raimondo · Salernitana |
| 64' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Salernitana |
| 66' | 🟨 | Valentin Antov · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Cerri · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Azzi · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 32.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1431.93 | 1560.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.33 | 28.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 28.15 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |