← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 52% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Mantova win | 20% | 4.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Mantova −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Antonio Fiori · Mantova |
| 18' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Caso · Modena |
| 30' | ⚽ | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 38' | ⚽ | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova |
| 72' | 🟨 | Simone Giordano · Mantova |
| 73' | 🟨 | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gady Beyuku · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 26 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 92.00 | 581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1452.79 | 1470.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | -7.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |