← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 50% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 |
| Cittadella win | 20% | 5.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Cittadella +0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Federico Casolari · Cittadella |
| 13' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 20' | ⚽ | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Lorenzo Carissoni · Spezia |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Carissoni · Cittadella |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Amatucci · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato |
| coach days | 123.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1419.74 | 1561.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.89 | 5.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 28.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |