← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggiana win | 36% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Palermo win | 31% | 36% | 3.28 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Reggiana −0.25 | 45% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucchesi · Reggiana |
| 25' | ⚽ | Pietro Ceccaroni · Palermo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matteo Brunori · Palermo |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alessandro Sersanti · Reggiana |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rayyan Baniya · Palermo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana |
| 76' | 🟨 | Manuel Marras · Reggiana |
| 81' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Palermo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Antonio Vergara · Reggiana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Palermo |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggiana | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 🟨 |
| Salim Diakité · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 209.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1426.76 | 1497.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.17 | 11.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 27.07 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.73 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |