← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 40% | 33% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 38% | 3.00 | value: +14% |
| Carrarese win | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Spezia +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 20' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stiven Shpendi · Carrarese |
| 34' | 🟨 | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Filippo Oliana · Carrarese |
| 45' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 58' | ⚽ | Salvatore Elia · Spezia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| coach days | 384.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1482.87 | 1543.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.94 | -17.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.86 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 27.07 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |