← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Perri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 62% | 75% | 1.54 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.12 | fair |
| Sudtirol win | 14% | 8% | 6.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sudtirol −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.89 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
| 7' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Sudtirol |
| 9' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 11' | ⚽ | Niklas Pyyhtiä · Sudtirol |
| 35' | 🟨 | Niklas Pyyhtiä · Sudtirol |
| 43' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 51' | 🟨 | Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
| 55' | ⚽ | Josh Doig · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 58' | ⚽ | Daniel Boloca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nicola Pietrangeli · Sudtirol |
| 69' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| ⚽ |
| Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Mallamo · Sudtirol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Horațiu Moldovan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 232.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1648.72 | 1407.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.57 | 4.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
| league points | 49.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 27.44 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -2.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |