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Salernitana 2–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana win41%2.41
Draw32%3.01
Reggiana win27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana −0.2552%1.88
Salernitana −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.59
Over40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana
39'🟨Alberto Cerri · Salernitana
51'🟥Lorenzo Ignacchiti · Reggiana
53'🟨Franco Tongya · Salernitana
60'🟨Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
62'⚽Luca Vido · Reggiana
75'🟨Justin Kumi · Reggiana
76'⚽Alberto Cerri · Salernitana
80'🟨Francesco Bardi · Reggiana
83'🟨Fabrizio Caligara · Salernitana
90'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots11
3On target3
3Corners1
13Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.55
cards avg (last 5)2.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Arechi
Alberto Cerri
· Salernitana
coach days17.00201.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.252.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.58
elo1400.771430.72
elo momentum (last 5)-35.414.52
eye test v1-0.340.22
eye trend v1-0.270.38
first sub minute (last 10)49.5058.50
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.750.65
league points18.0025.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0073.20
possession avg (last 5)47.6040.60
rest days6.106.00
scorer concentration0.130.21
season ppg0.861.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.203.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.80
skill v10.18-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
state index-0.95-0.06
sterile dominance v10.09-1.54
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.220.46
threat rate (last 5)0.240.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60