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Cosenza 2–2 Mantova

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win49%1.95
Draw28%3.40
Mantova win23%4.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.550%1.94
Mantova −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Gabriele Artistico · Cosenza
23'⚽Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
36'⚽Tommaso Maggioni · Mantova
43'🟨Tommaso D'Orazio · Cosenza
58'🟨Christian Kouan · Cosenza
61'🟨Cristiano Bani · Mantova
63'⚽Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova
76'🟨Gabriele Artistico · Cosenza
81'🟨Filippo Sgarbi · Cosenza
90'🟨Christos Kourfalidis · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots13
4On target5
3Corners4
22Fouls19
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaMantova
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.340.43
cards avg (last 5)4.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days225.00561.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.571.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.40
elo1430.431461.80
elo momentum (last 5)-30.05-13.92
eye test v10.05-0.14
eye trend v10.270.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.3048.70
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.740.79
league points21.0023.00
league rank16.0015.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.005.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)47.0057.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg1.051.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.80
skill v1-0.210.89
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
state index-0.88-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.490.97
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.340.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60