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US Sassuolo Calcio 2–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win64%1.48
Draw21%4.52
Cosenza win14%7.06

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −1.2553%1.83
US Sassuolo Calcio −1.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

60'⚽Michael Venturi · Cosenza
68'🟨Massimo Zilli · Cosenza
77'🟨Jeremy Toljan · US Sassuolo Calcio
85'🟨Charlys · Cosenza
86'⚽Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio
90'🟨Michael Venturi · Cosenza
90'⚽Luca Lipani · US Sassuolo Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots9
11On target3
7Corners0
15Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.680.36
cards avg (last 5)2.804.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days211.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.05
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.933.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1608.701434.55
elo momentum (last 5)16.22-22.53
eye test v10.460.27
eye trend v1-0.650.27
first sub minute (last 10)50.8053.90
form points (last 5)12.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.800.71
league points43.0021.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.008.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)56.8053.80
rest days3.103.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg2.261.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4015.00
skill v11.150.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
squad age25.91—
state index0.65-0.67
sterile dominance v10.80-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.29
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40