← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scatena
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Sudtirol win | 22% | 4.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Modena −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.51 |
| Over | 36% | 2.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
| 28' | 🟥 | Cristian Cauz · Modena |
| 38' | 🟨 | Raphael Kofler · Sudtirol |
| 52' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 57' | 🟨 | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Modena |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 74' | 🟥 | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabio Abiuso · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Santoro · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 58.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| 28.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1464.92 | 1397.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.74 | -21.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |